The Chicago Cubs have made their way to Japan and while the team does not have to officially announce their Opening Day roster until March 17, deductive reasoning can be used based on the players who traveled with the team.

Most notably, top prospect Matt Shaw is with the team in Japan. Despite the flirtation with signing Alex Bregman last month, Shaw has been the presumed Opening Day third baseman for the Cubs since the team traded Isaac Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker deal last December. The only thing that would’ve held Shaw back was the oblique injury he suffered near the start of Spring Training. However, with Shaw traveling with the team, it’s safe to say he will be on the Opening Day roster. As a reminder, beyond the traditional 26-man roster, the Cubs have a five-player taxi squad with them in Japan.

Shaw is not currently on the Cubs’ 40-man roster, so there will need to be a corresponding roster move. Basing it on the players who are not traveling with the team, it’s a safe bet to say the move will be Keegan Thompson being designated for assignment. Thompson is out of minor-league options and would’ve needed to have been on the Major League roster to open the season. With Thompson not traveling with the Cubs to Japan, it’s a safe bet to say his time with the organization is nearing an end.

After making his Major League debut with the Cubs in 2021, Thompson appeared to be on the ascent toward being an ace in the bullpen. Things took a turn for Thompson in 2023 when he saw a regression in his command. Thompson hasn’t quite been the same since. Last season, despite having an ERA of 2.67, his expected ERA was at 4.46 with a walk rate of 14.2%. Given the improvements the Cubs made in the bullpen this offseason, it seemed to mark the end of the line for Thompson with the organization.

Another pitcher who may soon follow Thompson on his way out of the organization is Tyson Miller. Miller has struggled during spring training and is out of minor-league options. Miller is with the team in Japan but given the depth the Cubs have, there likely will be a short leash if his struggles continue in the early parts of the season.